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Blackhawks Odds and Ends As the Draft Lottery Approaches



How many Chicago Blackhawks fans wish their team would have won a few less games at the end of the season? Going back to the 5-2 win over Pittsburgh that helped clean out the Penguins front office, Chicago slipped in the tank standings. A win as such helped secure the third spot in the draft, not helping matters for a fanbase that desperately wanted the top odds for Connor Bedard.

All is not lost, however. As the Draft Lottery inches closer to Monday, here are some odds and ends as the angst of many fans across the league hope for things to fall their way.

Blackhawks Odds of Picking #1: 11.5%

Tankathon puts Chicago’s odds at 11.5% of snagging the top spot. From there, they have an 11.2%, 7.8%, 39.7%, and 20.8% chance of picking second, third, fourth and fifth respectively.

So good news? There’s hope. Bad news? They have a 60.5% chance of falling beyond third.

Blackhawks Odds of Getting A Foundational Player: Good

The 2023 NHL Draft is loaded and is especially heavy at the top end. Even if Chicago slips to fifth, there are plenty of good options still available. Bedard will go one and University of Michigan product Adam Fantilli is likely to go at number two. From there and based on the scout or analyst, it could be a variety of names. Leo Carlsson, Matvei Michkov, Will Smith, or even Zach Benson. Michkov is one of the most intriguing options, as it’s been back and forth in terms of where he could land due to a myriad of questions on and off the ice. But he sure looks like a bonafide talent.

Carlsson could be a steal if Chicago has a crack at him. He’s been listed anywhere from second to fifth on several mock drafts.

In short, even if Chicago doesn’t pick first, they’ll have options even if they slip to fifth.

Tankathon End Game: The Math Doesn’t Lie

Chicago Hockey Now ran the Tankathon Draft Lottery Simulator ten times and it stayed tight to the mathematical odds. Of the ten chances:

  • Six landed at the fourth overall pick
  • Two landed at the fifth overall pick
  • One landed at the third overall pick
  • One landed at the second overall pick

Per Tankathon’s numbers, the aforementioned odds for a fourth or fifth round pick was 60.5%. The CHN simulation landed an 80% chance of picking at one of those spots, with 60% hitting at fourth.

It might not inspire the most confidence but all that matters is whatever hits on Monday. At that point, math be damned, it’s anyone’s lucky day.