Tank You Very Much: Blackhawks Hold Top Lottery Odds At Game 50

The players don’t want to hear it and neither do the coaches and that’s understandable. But with the loss to the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday, the Chicago Blackhawks now sit first in the lottery odds for the 2024 NHL Draft. The fans are the ones who enjoy that news the most.

The top consensus pick is Macklin Celebrini, but there are plenty of great options in the top three should the Blackhawks slide from #1. They may even improve as more wounded Hawks make their way back to the big club, which of course included Connor Bedard.

A look at where things stand courtesy of Tankathon, with a few spins of the wheel as well.

Blackhawks Have 25% Odds To Win the Lottery If Picking First

It doesn’t mean they’ll select first–after all the Blackhawks had the third best odds and ended up leapfrogging both Anaheim and Columbus. Here’s how it breaks down by point percentage:

• Blackhawks – .306;  25%
• Sharks – .312;  13.5%
• Anaheim – .354; 11.5%
• Columbus – .415; 9.5%
• Ottawa – .432; 8.5%
• Buffalo – .479; 7.5%
• Montreal – .490; 6.5%
• Minnesota – .490; 6%
• Calgary – .490; 5%
• Seattle – .521; 3.5%
• Arizona – .521;  3%

A few observations:

• Seattle and Arizona both have winning records and still have a crack at the top pick per the new rules. Another reason why a gradual build while still winning can still pay dividends. It also shows that teams on the cusp of the top ten are playing decent hockey
• Last season, Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington, St. Louis and Vancouver were all in the lottery. All are now hunting for a playoff spot while Vancouver leads the Pacific Division
• When the Blackhawks jumped up, everyone fell a slot in their respective spot. If that would hold true this season, too, the Hawks would fall to #2 but still be sitting pretty.

Cautionary Tales and Fun With Tankathon Sims

Of the teams currently sitting in the lottery standings, Ottawa, Buffalo, Minnesota, and Calgary were all hoping for better seasons. Buffalo and Ottawa were really supposed to see gains, with the Sabres  still unable to escape the perpetual rebuild that has haunted them for over a decade now. It reminds to build wisely and that even getting lottery luck and high picks doesn’t guarantee success.

Now for the fun part–I did a few spins of the Tankathon sim and here’s what happened after ten sims:

• Sim 1: Minnesota gets top pick (+7); Arizona gets 2nd pick (+9); Hawks get third
• Sim 2: Seattle gets top pick (+9); San Jose gets 2nd pick; Hawks get third
• Sim 3: Calgary gets top pick (+8); Hawks get 2nd pick
• Sim 4: Calgary gets top pick (+8); Columbus gets 2nd pick; Hawks get third
• Sim 5: San Jose gets top pick (+1); Hawks get 2nd pick
• Sim 6: Columbus gets top pick (+3); Anaheim gets 2nd pick (+1); Hawks get third
• Sim 7: Hawks get top pick
• Sim 8: Anaheim gets top pick (+2); San Jose gets 2nd pick; Hawks get third
• Sim 9: Minnesota gets top pick (+7); Montreal gets 2nd pick (+5); Hawks get third
• Sim 10: Anaheim gets top pick (+2); Montreal gets 2nd pick (+5); Hawks get third

So of the 25% chance they had, in the simulation Chicago only gets the top pick–once. More intriguing–the Blackhawks picked third seven out of ten times in this simulation. Apparently, Tankathon was in a punishing mood for the Blackhawks lottery luck last season.

Luckily, simulations aren’t real life. Whether the Blackhawks end up dropping or staying in position to pick first, they’ll have plenty of options to keep stocking their prospect pool.